Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $58 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$58.26
$0.15
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.34 | $18.35 | +$0.01 | 78% 316-88 (404) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.98 | $15.99 | +$0.01 | 25% 847-2482 (3329) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.99 | $10 | +$0.01 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $8.76 | $8.8 | +$0.03 | 37% 3143-5368 (8511) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $5.03 | $5.13 | +$0.09 | 54% 493-423 (916) |
Invested
$18.34
Value
$18.35
PnL
+$0.01
Record
78%
316-88 (404)
Invested
$15.98
Value
$15.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
25%
847-2482 (3329)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.01
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.76
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$0.03
Record
37%
3143-5368 (8511)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$0.09
Record
54%
493-423 (916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.