Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 10?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 92¢ · $313 held · ends Nov 10

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$312.64

Combined PnL

-$6.94

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 92¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$277.47

Total Shares293

Combined PnL+$14.73

Yes2 traders

Total Value$35.17

Total Shares440

Combined PnL-$21.67

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 93¢	$116.25	$117.5	+$1.25	32% 811-1697 (2508)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$57.74	$34.69	-$23.05	21% 132-485 (617)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$30.57	$33.98	+$3.41	89% 409-53 (462)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 84¢	$25.2	$28.2	+$3	4% 15-322 (337)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 84¢	$25.2	$28.2	+$3	11% 35-270 (305)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 82¢	$19.1	$20.49	+$1.39	17% 10-48 (58)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 84¢	$16.12	$18.04	+$1.92	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 93¢	$11.9	$12.03	+$0.13	4% 17-463 (480)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 93¢	$6.51	$6.58	+$0.07	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 95¢	$6.28	$6.21	-$0.07	4% 14-366 (380)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.41	$5.06	+$0.65	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 93¢	$1.19	$1.18	-$0.01	34% 150-294 (444)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$11.8	$0.48	+$1.39	51% 197-186 (383)

mildwindow27

Invested

$116.25

Value

$117.5

PnL

+$1.25

Record

32%

811-1697 (2508)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.74

Value

$34.69

PnL

-$23.05

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$30.57

Value

$33.98

PnL

+$3.41

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$3

Record

15-322 (337)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$25.2

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$3

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$19.1

Value

$20.49

PnL

+$1.39

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$16.12

Value

$18.04

PnL

+$1.92

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$11.9

Value

$12.03

PnL

+$0.13

Record

17-463 (480)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$0.07

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$6.28

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$0.07

Record

14-366 (380)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$4.41

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.65

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.01

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.8

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$1.39

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.