Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 10?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 99¢ · $276 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 91%

Total Value

$275.99

Combined PnL

$1.53

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$275.99

Total Shares278

Combined PnL+$1.53

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares1

Combined PnL+$0

No — 91%Yes — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 98.8¢	$123.45	$124.31	+$0.87	4% 14-366 (380)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$50.07	$50.33	+$0.26	28% 153-400 (553)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.84	-$0.04	11% 28-230 (258)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.84	-$0.04	11% 35-270 (305)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$13.16	$13.52	+$0.36	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$7.95	$8	+$0.04	30% 174-414 (588)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$6.99	$6.96	-$0.02	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$6.49	$6.57	+$0.08	32% 811-1697 (2508)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$5.32	$5.35	+$0.03	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.27	$1.27	-$0	31% 163-361 (524)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0	$0.01	+$0	17% 10-48 (58)

smallreceipt

Invested

$123.45

Value

$124.31

PnL

+$0.87

Record

14-366 (380)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$50.07

Value

$50.33

PnL

+$0.26

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.84

PnL

-$0.04

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.84

PnL

-$0.04

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$13.16

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$0.36

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

PnL

+$0.04

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$6.99

Value

$6.96

PnL

-$0.02

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$6.49

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$0.08

Record

32%

811-1697 (2508)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$5.32

Value

$5.35

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

10-48 (58)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.