Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 74¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.4K
-$2.17
73.2¢ → 73.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $642.05 | $640.14 | -$1.9 | 50% 1825-1804 (3629) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 69.3¢ | $651.3 | $605.54 | +$16.31 | 47% 665-744 (1409) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 83¢ | $178.81 | $155.11 | -$19.39 | 55% 410-331 (741) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 71.2¢ | $36.58 | $39.27 | +$2.69 | 59% 1800-1250 (3050) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $2.36 | $2.48 | +$0.12 | 61% 21089-13426 (34515) |
Invested
$642.05
Value
$640.14
PnL
-$1.9
Record
50%
1825-1804 (3629)
Invested
$651.3
Value
$605.54
PnL
+$16.31
Record
47%
665-744 (1409)
Invested
$178.81
Value
$155.11
PnL
-$19.39
Record
55%
410-331 (741)
Invested
$36.58
Value
$39.27
PnL
+$2.69
Record
59%
1800-1250 (3050)
balthazar<$100Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.48
PnL
+$0.12
Record
61%
21089-13426 (34515)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.