Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $468 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$468.47
$6.06
83.9¢ → 86.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $285.31 | $292.4 | +$7.09 | 59% 1738-1204 (2942) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 86¢ | $121.23 | $124.05 | +$3.52 | 56% 368-292 (660) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 77.1¢ | $50.53 | $46.33 | -$1.92 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $2.37 | $3.69 | +$1.32 | 53% 6477-5678 (12155) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $7.76 | $2 | -$3.95 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
Invested
$285.31
Value
$292.4
PnL
+$7.09
Record
59%
1738-1204 (2942)
Invested
$121.23
Value
$124.05
PnL
+$3.52
Record
56%
368-292 (660)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.53
Value
$46.33
PnL
-$1.92
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Invested
$2.37
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$1.32
Record
53%
6477-5678 (12155)
Invested
$7.76
Value
$2
PnL
-$3.95
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.