Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 27¢ · $946 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$945.62
$281.97
14.2¢ → 27¢
+90% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $422.35 | $416.47 | -$4.4 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.6¢ | $327.37 | $245.72 | -$82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.3¢ | $93 | $170.75 | +$77.6 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 11.3¢ | $112.92 | $387.91 | +$274.99 | 47% 641-724 (1365) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.6¢ | $67.44 | $77.99 | +$10.55 | 59% 1738-1204 (2942) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $96.46 | $47.23 | +$2.11 | 53% 6477-5678 (12155) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.7¢ | $26.44 | $16.02 | -$5.68 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$422.35
Value
$416.47
PnL
-$4.4
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.92
Value
$387.91
PnL
+$274.99
Record
47%
641-724 (1365)
Invested
$67.44
Value
$77.99
PnL
+$10.55
Record
59%
1738-1204 (2942)
Invested
$96.46
Value
$47.23
PnL
+$2.11
Record
53%
6477-5678 (12155)
Invested
$26.44
Value
$16.02
PnL
-$5.68
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.