Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 29?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 45¢ · $568 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$568.21
-$21.02
44.2¢ → 44.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 44.1¢ | $260.13 | $241.73 | -$18.4 | 51% 596-562 (1158) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 51.6¢ | $150.65 | $147.53 | -$3.12 | 55% 287-239 (526) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $61.11 | $60.24 | +$0.06 | 25% 283-842 (1125) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.1¢ | $62.39 | $56.77 | -$5.63 | 50% 1675-1660 (3335) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $46.8 | $53.1 | +$6.3 | 61% 20735-13149 (33884) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $8.44 | $8.25 | -$0.19 | 60% 1624-1083 (2707) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $0.63 | $0.59 | -$0.04 | 57% 13182-10034 (23216) |
Invested
$260.13
Value
$241.73
PnL
-$18.4
Record
51%
596-562 (1158)
Invested
$150.65
Value
$147.53
PnL
-$3.12
Record
55%
287-239 (526)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$61.11
Value
$60.24
PnL
+$0.06
Record
25%
283-842 (1125)
Invested
$62.39
Value
$56.77
PnL
-$5.63
Record
50%
1675-1660 (3335)
balthazar<$100Invested
$46.8
Value
$53.1
PnL
+$6.3
Record
61%
20735-13149 (33884)
Invested
$8.44
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$0.19
Record
60%
1624-1083 (2707)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$0.04
Record
57%
13182-10034 (23216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.