Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 29?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 43¢ · $525 held · ends Oct 29

Yes43¢No57¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$524.97

Combined PnL

$121.58

Smart Money Entry

30.4¢ → 42.5¢

+40% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$507.36

Total Shares1,274

Combined PnL+$121.61

No1 trader

Total Value$17.61

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.03

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 24.6¢	$165.87	$259.36	+$93.49	51% 600-573 (1173)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 36.8¢	$164.73	$190.41	+$25.68	60% 1636-1103 (2739)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$48.83	$48.83	+$3.96	55% 302-247 (549)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 59.1¢	$17.64	$17.61	-$0.03	50% 1689-1672 (3361)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$39.01	$8.76	-$1.51	53% 6381-5587 (11968)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$165.87

Value

$259.36

PnL

+$93.49

Record

51%

600-573 (1173)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$164.73

Value

$190.41

PnL

+$25.68

Record

60%

1636-1103 (2739)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.83

Value

$48.83

PnL

+$3.96

Record

55%

302-247 (549)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$17.64

Value

$17.61

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

1689-1672 (3361)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.01

Value

$8.76

PnL

-$1.51

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.