Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $631 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$631.21
$11.92
86.7¢ → 70¢
-19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $489.57 | $467.11 | -$1.7 | 60% 1636-1103 (2739) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100 | Noavg 70.2¢ | $57.52 | $70.97 | +$13.45 | 51% 600-573 (1173) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $51.25 | $53.44 | +$2.18 | 57% 13257-10098 (23355) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $22.58 | $28.76 | +$6.18 | 53% 6381-5587 (11968) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.4¢ | $19.13 | $10.94 | -$8.19 | 50% 1689-1672 (3361) |
Invested
$489.57
Value
$467.11
PnL
-$1.7
Record
60%
1636-1103 (2739)
Invested
$57.52
Value
$70.97
PnL
+$13.45
Record
51%
600-573 (1173)
Invested
$51.25
Value
$53.44
PnL
+$2.18
Record
57%
13257-10098 (23355)
Invested
$22.58
Value
$28.76
PnL
+$6.18
Record
53%
6381-5587 (11968)
Invested
$19.13
Value
$10.94
PnL
-$8.19
Record
50%
1689-1672 (3361)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.