Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 28?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 55¢ · $276 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$276.05
$24.7
41.2¢ → 54.5¢
+32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $159.65 | $184.72 | +$25.07 | 51% 577-548 (1125) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $46.18 | $45.09 | -$0.82 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $20.93 | $22.17 | +$1.23 | 61% 1566-1014 (2580) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.4¢ | $14.58 | $14.33 | -$0.25 | 61% 20619-13064 (33683) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.4¢ | $10.27 | $9.74 | -$0.53 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
Invested
$159.65
Value
$184.72
PnL
+$25.07
Record
51%
577-548 (1125)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$46.18
Value
$45.09
PnL
-$0.82
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Invested
$20.93
Value
$22.17
PnL
+$1.23
Record
61%
1566-1014 (2580)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$14.58
Value
$14.33
PnL
-$0.25
Record
61%
20619-13064 (33683)
Invested
$10.27
Value
$9.74
PnL
-$0.53
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.