Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 28?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 68¢ · $1K held
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
$14.16
70.8¢ → 68.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Noavg 69.8¢ | $881.71 | $844.84 | -$36.87 | 51% 577-548 (1125) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 69.8¢ | $455.3 | $498.97 | +$43.67 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29¢ | $426.41 | $345.87 | -$80.54 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 74.2¢ | $239.67 | $212.59 | -$9.24 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74.2¢ | $157.75 | $162.63 | +$4.81 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $59.39 | $49.96 | -$14.05 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 69.6¢ | $109.68 | $140.72 | +$31.04 | 54% 244-212 (456) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $44.7 | $45.9 | +$1.2 | 61% 20619-13064 (33683) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $20.35 | $16.43 | -$3.92 | 50% 1640-1625 (3265) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $42.42 | $6.48 | -$14.16 | 53% 6286-5517 (11803) |
Invested
$881.71
Value
$844.84
PnL
-$36.87
Record
51%
577-548 (1125)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$239.67
Value
$212.59
PnL
-$9.24
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.68
Value
$140.72
PnL
+$31.04
Record
54%
244-212 (456)
balthazar<$100Invested
$44.7
Value
$45.9
PnL
+$1.2
Record
61%
20619-13064 (33683)
Invested
$20.35
Value
$16.43
PnL
-$3.92
Record
50%
1640-1625 (3265)
Invested
$42.42
Value
$6.48
PnL
-$14.16
Record
53%
6286-5517 (11803)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.