Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C or higher on November 8?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 51¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 8

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$202.03

Combined PnL

-$18.58

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 51¢

-12% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$113.67

Total Shares191

Combined PnL+$2.56

No7 traders

Total Value$87.91

Total Shares188

Combined PnL-$21.14

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 61.5¢	$90.72	$91.38	+$0.66	37% 913-1562 (2475)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$79.8	$26.68	-$21.57	26% 2319-6715 (9034)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 46.7¢	$16.38	$21.03	+$4.65	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 58.3¢	$25.14	$18.58	-$6.57	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$26.77	$12.39	-$7.49	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 46¢	$9.2	$12	+$2.8	34% 33217-64988 (98205)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 54¢	$5.6	$5.7	+$0.1	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 49.1¢	$4.75	$5.32	+$0.57	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 49¢	$6.51	$4.79	-$0.2	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.8¢	$6.08	$2.79	+$0.93	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 44.6¢	$104.93	$0.91	+$7.53	13% 603-4221 (4824)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.72

Value

$91.38

PnL

+$0.66

Record

37%

913-1562 (2475)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$79.8

Value

$26.68

PnL

-$21.57

Record

26%

2319-6715 (9034)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$16.38

Value

$21.03

PnL

+$4.65

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.14

Value

$18.58

PnL

-$6.57

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.77

Value

$12.39

PnL

-$7.49

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$9.2

Value

$12

PnL

+$2.8

Record

34%

33217-64988 (98205)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$5.32

PnL

+$0.57

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.51

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.08

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$0.93

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$104.93

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$7.53

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.