Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 7?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 88¢ · $323 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$322.9
-$12.85
82.9¢ → 87.9¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $84.43 | $151.98 | -$20.1 | 39% 885-1409 (2294) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 83.6¢ | $120.52 | $123.92 | -$1.35 | 56% 777-601 (1378) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $29.38 | $20.48 | +$5.24 | 58% 21660-15754 (37414) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $32.4 | $19.64 | +$1.14 | 19% 2965-12539 (15504) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.7¢ | $2.55 | $3.6 | +$1.05 | 42% 2415-3350 (5765) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.1 | $3.27 | +$1.17 | 54% 10711-9227 (19938) |
Invested
$84.43
Value
$151.98
PnL
-$20.1
Record
39%
885-1409 (2294)
Invested
$120.52
Value
$123.92
PnL
-$1.35
Record
56%
777-601 (1378)
Invested
$29.38
Value
$20.48
PnL
+$5.24
Record
58%
21660-15754 (37414)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$32.4
Value
$19.64
PnL
+$1.14
Record
19%
2965-12539 (15504)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$1.05
Record
42%
2415-3350 (5765)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$3.27
PnL
+$1.17
Record
54%
10711-9227 (19938)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.