Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 5?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 63¢ · $660 held · ended Nov 5

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$659.93

Combined PnL

-$99.08

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 62.5¢

-17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$659.93

Total Shares1,188

Combined PnL-$99.08

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 76.7¢	$370.16	$283.41	-$86.74	32% 2215-4713 (6928)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 74.2¢	$198.98	$142.13	-$50.19	56% 691-543 (1234)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 78.9¢	$151.86	$113.36	-$38.5	41% 831-1188 (2019)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$66.75	$47.56	-$11.51	53% 8525-7603 (16128)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$55.33	$36.2	+$7.87	58% 21129-15368 (36497)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 71¢	$63.58	$35.09	-$11.09	53% 10364-9021 (19385)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 6.4¢	$12.3	$2.18	+$91.08	41% 1254-1819 (3073)

hello.67

Invested

$370.16

Value

$283.41

PnL

-$86.74

Record

32%

2215-4713 (6928)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$198.98

Value

$142.13

PnL

-$50.19

Record

56%

691-543 (1234)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$151.86

Value

$113.36

PnL

-$38.5

Record

41%

831-1188 (2019)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$66.75

Value

$47.56

PnL

-$11.51

Record

53%

8525-7603 (16128)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$55.33

Value

$36.2

PnL

+$7.87

Record

58%

21129-15368 (36497)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$63.58

Value

$35.09

PnL

-$11.09

Record

53%

10364-9021 (19385)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$91.08

Record

41%

1254-1819 (3073)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.