Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on November 3?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$80.01
-$0
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $36.84 | $36.84 | -$0 | 35% 558-1046 (1604) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $7.99 | +$0 | 35% 710-1327 (2037) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 55% 5875-4772 (10647) |
Invested
$36.84
Value
$36.84
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
558-1046 (1604)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.99
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
710-1327 (2037)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
5875-4772 (10647)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.