Will the highest temperature in Munich be 3°C on November 3?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$195.43
-$0.1
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.93 | -$0.02 | 49% 9048-9543 (18591) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $47.02 | $47 | -$0.02 | 37% 758-1274 (2032) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 49% 7454-7779 (15233) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 42% 5989-8172 (14161) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.55 | $20.54 | -$0.01 | 37% 685-1150 (1835) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $7.99 | -$0 | 56% 3737-2986 (6723) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.07 | $5.07 | -$0 | 41% 943-1365 (2308) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.99 | -$0 | 55% 5875-4772 (10647) |
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
49%
9048-9543 (18591)
Invested
$47.02
Value
$47
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
758-1274 (2032)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
7454-7779 (15233)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
42%
5989-8172 (14161)
Invested
$20.55
Value
$20.54
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
685-1150 (1835)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.99
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
3737-2986 (6723)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
943-1365 (2308)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
5875-4772 (10647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
god83743894
No — $49.93
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $47
mildwindow27
No — $29.96
godblessme2026
No — $29.96
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $20.54
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $7.99
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $5.07
0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060
No — $4.99