Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C or below on November 3?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $159 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$158.78
-$0.08
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $109.89 | $109.84 | -$0.05 | 42% 5989-8172 (14161) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.68 | $25.67 | -$0.01 | 35% 710-1327 (2037) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.01 | $13 | -$0.01 | 37% 685-1150 (1835) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.07 | $5.07 | -$0 | 37% 758-1274 (2032) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.99 | -$0 | 55% 5875-4772 (10647) |
Invested
$109.89
Value
$109.84
PnL
-$0.05
Record
42%
5989-8172 (14161)
Invested
$25.68
Value
$25.67
PnL
-$0.01
Record
35%
710-1327 (2037)
Invested
$13.01
Value
$13
PnL
-$0.01
Record
37%
685-1150 (1835)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
758-1274 (2032)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.99
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
5875-4772 (10647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
godblessme2026
No — $109.84
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $25.67
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $13
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $5.07
0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060
No — $4.99