Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 16?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$132.28

Combined PnL

-$0.65

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 97.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$130.93

Total Shares133

Combined PnL+$0.8

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.23

Total Shares46

Combined PnL-$1.45

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$70.2	$71.06	+$0.86	42% 808-1111 (1919)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$19.86	$19.74	-$0.12	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$9.83	$9.87	+$0.04	39% 334-532 (866)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$9.57	$9.87	+$0.3	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.41	$5.2	-$0.21	38% 323-524 (847)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.15	$5.13	-$0.03	24% 796-2588 (3384)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.09	$5.07	-$0.03	49% 868-890 (1758)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.01	$4.99	-$0.03	30% 1182-2734 (3916)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.04	$1.04	+$0	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.57	$0.19	-$1.45	40% 2677-3972 (6649)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$70.2

Value

$71.06

PnL

+$0.86

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.86

Value

$19.74

PnL

-$0.12

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.83

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

334-532 (866)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.57

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.3

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$5.41

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.21

Record

38%

323-524 (847)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.03

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

1182-2734 (3916)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.57

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.45

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+23 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.