Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on November 16?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $20 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
10
Yes 90%
$20.12
-$29.08
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+1 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.99 | +$0.01 | 53% 7602-6693 (14295) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.26 | $0.04 | -$7.22 | 42% 5253-7309 (12562) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.44 | $0.04 | -$6.4 | 28% 3336-8584 (11920) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.7 | $0.03 | -$4.68 | 32% 1142-2481 (3623) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.3 | $0.01 | -$2.29 | 35% 3950-7384 (11334) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.51 | $0.01 | -$1.51 | 36% 1648-2903 (4551) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.63 | $0 | -$4.58 | 26% 614-1782 (2396) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $12.66 | $0 | -$1.72 | 40% 2689-4008 (6697) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.47 | $0 | -$0.47 | 23% 816-2733 (3549) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.23 | $0 | -$0.23 | 38% 334-535 (869) |
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
7602-6693 (14295)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.26
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$7.22
Record
42%
5253-7309 (12562)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$6.4
Record
28%
3336-8584 (11920)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.68
Record
32%
1142-2481 (3623)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.29
Record
35%
3950-7384 (11334)
Invested
$1.51
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.51
Record
36%
1648-2903 (4551)
Invested
$4.63
Value
$0
PnL
-$4.58
Record
26%
614-1782 (2396)
Invested
$12.66
Value
$0
PnL
-$1.72
Record
40%
2689-4008 (6697)
Invested
$0.47
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.47
Record
23%
816-2733 (3549)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.23
Record
38%
334-535 (869)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.