Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 2 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on November 16?

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (18%) · Yes at 16¢ · $340 held · ends Nov 16

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 18%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$340.13

Combined PnL

$20.5

Smart Money Entry

12.1¢ → 15.7¢

+29% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$132.8

Total Shares848

Combined PnL+$30.1

No9 traders

Total Value$113.84

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$9.6

Yes — 18%No — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-45 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$102.48	$132.35	+$29.87	42% 62-84 (146)
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$98.44	$93.29	+$35.27	43% 851-1141 (1992)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 6.2¢	$20.27	$51.11	+$48.36
└ No leg	Noavg 84.1¢	$42.05	$42.18	-$13.09
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.7¢	$39.29	$36.44	-$2.85	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$28.28	$25.61	-$2.67	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$24.38	$22.02	-$2.36	39% 346-547 (893)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$13.93	$12.61	-$1.31	30% 1195-2736 (3931)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.33	$4.35	+$0.02	52% 969-886 (1855)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$4.74	$4.28	-$0.46	50% 975-969 (1944)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.21	$4.23	+$0.02	50% 910-924 (1834)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$2.72	$2.72	+$0.01	52% 994-930 (1924)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$1.57	$1.58	+$0	58% 914-665 (1579)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.23	$0.45	+$0.22	38% 334-535 (869)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$102.48

Value

$132.35

PnL

+$29.87

Record

42%

62-84 (146)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$98.44

Value

$93.29

PnL

+$35.27

Record

43%

851-1141 (1992)

Both legs:

Yes$20.276.2¢+$48.36

No$42.0584.1¢-$13.09

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.29

Value

$36.44

PnL

-$2.85

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.28

Value

$25.61

PnL

-$2.67

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$24.38

Value

$22.02

PnL

-$2.36

Record

39%

346-547 (893)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$13.93

Value

$12.61

PnL

-$1.31

Record

30%

1195-2736 (3931)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.33

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

969-886 (1855)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.28

PnL

-$0.46

Record

50%

975-969 (1944)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.21

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

910-924 (1834)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.72

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.01

Record

52%

994-930 (1924)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.57

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

914-665 (1579)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.22

Record

38%

334-535 (869)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 11 top traders (18%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-45 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

18% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.3%

15.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$476.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

576.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.