Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on November 16?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 44¢ · $307 held · ends Nov 16

Yes44¢No56¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$306.98

Combined PnL

$76.54

Smart Money Entry

36.5¢ → 44¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes44%

No56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$266.39

Total Shares592

Combined PnL+$55.02

No7 traders

Total Value$40.59

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$21.52

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 36.4¢	$200.87	$248	+$47.13	54% 1126-975 (2101)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 55.7¢	$16.97	$17.51	+$0.54	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 42.5¢	$29.02	$15.22	+$0.92	42% 808-1111 (1919)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 60¢	$9.5	$9.05	-$0.45	71% 954-392 (1346)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.14	$3.16	+$6.96	40% 2677-3972 (6649)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.87	$2.98	+$0.1	24% 796-2588 (3384)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.84	$2.94	+$0.1	52% 959-896 (1855)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 56¢	$16.2	$2.85	+$20.87	28% 3305-8424 (11729)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.75	$2.82	+$0.08	47% 898-1015 (1913)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.38	$2.44	+$0.27	31% 1127-2476 (3603)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$200.87

Value

$248

PnL

+$47.13

Record

54%

1126-975 (2101)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.97

Value

$17.51

PnL

+$0.54

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.02

Value

$15.22

PnL

+$0.92

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.05

PnL

-$0.45

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.14

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$6.96

Record

40%

2677-3972 (6649)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$0.1

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.84

Value

$2.94

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

959-896 (1855)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$20.87

Record

28%

3305-8424 (11729)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.08

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.44

PnL

+$0.27

Record

31%

1127-2476 (3603)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 44%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.