Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 16?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 40¢ · $370 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$370.43
-$16.31
40.2¢ → 40.4¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $215.81 | $184.94 | -$4.51 | 54% 1126-975 (2101) |
HE hello.67CTR | Yesavg 41.9¢ | $159.08 | $143.83 | -$15.25 | 53% 2353-2120 (4473) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 62.1¢ | $12.57 | $12.49 | -$0.08 | 71% 954-392 (1346) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 61.8¢ | $12.36 | $12.34 | -$0.02 | 53% 7499-6626 (14125) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $5.98 | $5.97 | -$0.02 | 53% 2316-2081 (4397) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.09 | $4.56 | +$3.46 | 40% 2677-3972 (6649) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 61.7¢ | $3.22 | $3.16 | -$0.06 | 24% 796-2588 (3384) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $2.92 | $3.09 | +$0.17 | 42% 808-1111 (1919) |
Invested
$215.81
Value
$184.94
PnL
-$4.51
Record
54%
1126-975 (2101)
Invested
$159.08
Value
$143.83
PnL
-$15.25
Record
53%
2353-2120 (4473)
Invested
$12.57
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$0.08
Record
71%
954-392 (1346)
Invested
$12.36
Value
$12.34
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
7499-6626 (14125)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.97
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
2316-2081 (4397)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$4.56
PnL
+$3.46
Record
40%
2677-3972 (6649)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$3.16
PnL
-$0.06
Record
24%
796-2588 (3384)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$0.17
Record
42%
808-1111 (1919)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.