Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 16?
10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 90¢ · $706 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 83%
$706.12
-$5.41
90.1¢ → 89.5¢
-1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $395.26 | $390 | -$5.26 | 42% 808-1111 (1919) |
PO Poligarch | Noavg 89.7¢ | $137.59 | $137.99 | +$0.4 | 71% 954-392 (1346) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 90.4¢ | $111.3 | $110.81 | -$0.49 | 29% 315-771 (1086) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $19.16 | $19.68 | +$0.52 | 53% 2316-2081 (4397) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $18 | -$0.4 | 53% 7499-6626 (14125) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $9.1 | $9 | -$0.1 | 28% 1108-2781 (3889) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.78 | $4.67 | -$0.1 | 30% 1182-2734 (3916) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $4.7 | $4.65 | -$0.05 | 24% 796-2588 (3384) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.62 | $4.52 | -$0.1 | 36% 339-612 (951) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.5 | -$0.05 | 35% 88-166 (254) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.42 | $1.2 | +$0.17 | 40% 2677-3972 (6649) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.04 | $1.09 | +$0.05 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
Invested
$395.26
Value
$390
PnL
-$5.26
Record
42%
808-1111 (1919)
Invested
$137.59
Value
$137.99
PnL
+$0.4
Record
71%
954-392 (1346)
HaradwaithInvested
$111.3
Value
$110.81
PnL
-$0.49
Record
29%
315-771 (1086)
Invested
$19.16
Value
$19.68
PnL
+$0.52
Record
53%
2316-2081 (4397)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$18
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
7499-6626 (14125)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.1
Record
28%
1108-2781 (3889)
Invested
$4.78
Value
$4.67
PnL
-$0.1
Record
30%
1182-2734 (3916)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
24%
796-2588 (3384)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$4.52
PnL
-$0.1
Record
36%
339-612 (951)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.05
Record
35%
88-166 (254)
Invested
$7.42
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.17
Record
40%
2677-3972 (6649)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0.05
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.