Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 14?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $224 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$224.42

Combined PnL

-$10.61

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$223.93

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$0.8

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.49

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$11.41

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$79.06	$79.64	+$0.58	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$39.88	$39.86	-$0.02	27% 667-1774 (2441)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.71	$29.87	+$0.16	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99¢	$29.7	$29.87	+$0.17	33% 220-451 (671)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.78	$15.76	-$0.02	51% 742-710 (1452)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.04	$15.03	-$0.02	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$6.07	$6.03	-$0.04	49% 731-768 (1499)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.39	$5.38	-$0.01	58% 679-500 (1179)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.48	$0.42	-$8.06	55% 1088-874 (1962)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.86	$0.07	-$3.35	44% 5036-6461 (11497)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.06

Value

$79.64

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$39.88

Value

$39.86

PnL

-$0.02

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.71

Value

$29.87

PnL

+$0.16

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.7

Value

$29.87

PnL

+$0.17

Record

33%

220-451 (671)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$15.78

Value

$15.76

PnL

-$0.02

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.04

Value

$15.03

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$6.03

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$5.38

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.48

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$8.06

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.86

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.35

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.