Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 14?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 87¢ · $362 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$362.19
$18.43
82.5¢ → 86.8¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $252.69 | $191.81 | +$24.33 | 56% 1073-841 (1914) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $70.78 | $69.16 | -$1.62 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $34.31 | $34.57 | +$0.26 | 45% 4955-6107 (11062) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $26.64 | $25.94 | -$0.7 | 29% 1059-2631 (3690) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $19.14 | $20.05 | +$0.91 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.9¢ | $8.04 | $9.19 | +$1.15 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $12.06 | $6.19 | -$5.87 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $5.3 | $5.28 | -$0.02 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
Invested
$252.69
Value
$191.81
PnL
+$24.33
Record
56%
1073-841 (1914)
Invested
$70.78
Value
$69.16
PnL
-$1.62
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
balthazar<$100Invested
$34.31
Value
$34.57
PnL
+$0.26
Record
45%
4955-6107 (11062)
Invested
$26.64
Value
$25.94
PnL
-$0.7
Record
29%
1059-2631 (3690)
Invested
$19.14
Value
$20.05
PnL
+$0.91
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$8.04
Value
$9.19
PnL
+$1.15
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
Invested
$12.06
Value
$6.19
PnL
-$5.87
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.28
PnL
-$0.02
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.