Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 14?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 56¢ · $450 held · ends Nov 14

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

Total Value

$450.38

Combined PnL

$146.8

Smart Money Entry

40.1¢ → 56.5¢

+41% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$314.89

Total Shares547

Combined PnL+$128.96

No6 traders

Total Value$135.49

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$17.84

Yes — 45%No — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 34.6¢	$193.32	$224.76	+$116.25	56% 1073-841 (1914)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 58.7¢	$73.42	$68.55	-$4.86	30% 108-251 (359)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$55.95	$59.44	+$3.49	38% 543-874 (1417)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 40.6¢	$32.5	$36.12	+$3.62	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 35.6¢	$8.3	$13.63	+$5.33	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 40.1¢	$12.03	$13.55	+$1.52	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$12.45	$13.5	+$1.05	27% 197-540 (737)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 41.5¢	$16.59	$11.21	+$8.31	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 55.7¢	$3.9	$4.1	+$0.2	73% 778-291 (1069)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.19	$3.86	+$12.04	36% 3613-6424 (10037)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Noavg 45.6¢	$1.82	$1.68	-$0.15	58% 2224-1622 (3846)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$193.32

Value

$224.76

PnL

+$116.25

Record

56%

1073-841 (1914)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.42

Value

$68.55

PnL

-$4.86

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$55.95

Value

$59.44

PnL

+$3.49

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$32.5

Value

$36.12

PnL

+$3.62

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.3

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$5.33

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

$12.03

Value

$13.55

PnL

+$1.52

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$12.45

Value

$13.5

PnL

+$1.05

Record

27%

197-540 (737)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$16.59

Value

$11.21

PnL

+$8.31

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.9

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.2

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.19

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$12.04

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

hello.67CTR<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.68

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.