Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 14?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 62¢ · $272 held · ends Nov 14

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$272.28

Combined PnL

$46.63

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 61.5¢

-14% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$125.51

Total Shares405

Combined PnL+$47.46

No10 traders

Total Value$146.29

Total Shares211

Combined PnL-$0.83

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$66.47	$109.83	+$43.36	55% 1088-874 (1962)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$59.6	$57.6	-$2	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 65¢	$26	$25.6	-$0.4	27% 667-1774 (2441)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 74¢	$22.2	$21.6	-$0.6	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$16.51	$15.59	-$0.92	72% 823-323 (1146)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$6.53	$9.17	+$2.63	40% 620-939 (1559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$9.02	$9.08	+$0.06	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$5.04	$6.51	+$1.47	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 65¢	$12.99	$5.77	+$2.75	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.71	$3.86	+$0.14	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.25	$3.28	+$0.03	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 59¢	$3.05	$3.16	+$0.1	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 63¢	$0.75	$0.75	+$0.01	51% 742-710 (1452)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$66.47

Value

$109.83

PnL

+$43.36

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.6

Value

$57.6

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$25.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

27%

667-1774 (2441)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$0.6

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$16.51

Value

$15.59

PnL

-$0.92

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.53

Value

$9.17

PnL

+$2.63

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.08

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.04

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$1.47

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$12.99

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$2.75

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.71

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.14

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.1

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$0.75

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.