Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on November 14?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $280 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$280.49
-$3.63
96.5¢ → 96.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 54%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $77.68 | $77.48 | -$0.2 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $71.61 | $73.51 | +$1.9 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $41.39 | $41.16 | -$0.23 | 29% 60-149 (209) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $29.28 | $29.06 | -$0.23 | 27% 973-2599 (3572) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $29.25 | $29.06 | -$0.2 | 30% 187-428 (615) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.4¢ | $26.42 | $27.71 | +$1.29 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.48 | $2.52 | -$5.96 | 56% 1073-841 (1914) |
Invested
$77.68
Value
$77.48
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$71.61
Value
$73.51
PnL
+$1.9
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$41.39
Value
$41.16
PnL
-$0.23
Record
29%
60-149 (209)
Invested
$29.28
Value
$29.06
PnL
-$0.23
Record
27%
973-2599 (3572)
Invested
$29.25
Value
$29.06
PnL
-$0.2
Record
30%
187-428 (615)
Invested
$26.42
Value
$27.71
PnL
+$1.29
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$2.52
PnL
-$5.96
Record
56%
1073-841 (1914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.