Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on November 14?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 98¢ · $230 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$229.78

Combined PnL

-$12.76

Smart Money Entry

99.1¢ → 98.4¢

-1% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$227.54

Total Shares232

Combined PnL-$2.95

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.25

Total Shares118

Combined PnL-$9.81

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$79.68	$78.48	-$1.2	53% 6888-6032 (12920)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.76	$58.86	-$0.9	34% 263-518 (781)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$28.11	$28.23	+$0.12	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$19.48	$19.62	+$0.14	40% 620-939 (1559)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$10.09	$10.02	-$0.07	51% 782-754 (1536)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$19.81	$8.93	-$0.89	29% 3158-7813 (10971)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.65	$5.61	-$0.04	63% 714-428 (1142)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.36	$5.35	-$0	48% 757-814 (1571)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.05	$5.01	-$0.04	58% 679-500 (1179)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$4.98	$4.94	-$0.04	49% 731-768 (1499)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.48	$1.77	-$6.71	55% 1088-874 (1962)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$17.27	$0.47	-$3.1	44% 5036-6461 (11497)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.68

Value

$78.48

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

6888-6032 (12920)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$59.76

Value

$58.86

PnL

-$0.9

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.11

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.48

Value

$19.62

PnL

+$0.14

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.09

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.81

Value

$8.93

PnL

-$0.89

Record

29%

3158-7813 (10971)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.65

Value

$5.61

PnL

-$0.04

Record

63%

714-428 (1142)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.36

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.48

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$6.71

Record

55%

1088-874 (1962)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.27

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$3.1

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.