Will the highest temperature in Munich be 3°C on November 14?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$148.44

Combined PnL

-$18.55

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.2¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$147.03

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$1.27

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.41

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$17.28

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.88	$59.22	-$0.66	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.61	-$0.33	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.61	-$0.33	29% 232-564 (796)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.03	$5.06	+$0.03	58% 684-501 (1185)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.06	$5.05	-$0.01	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$5.05	$5.05	+$0.01	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.02	$5.05	+$0.03	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.87	$4.87	-$0	49% 736-769 (1505)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$3.5	$3.5	-$0	99% 1213-13 (1226)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.48	$0.65	-$7.83	55% 1089-876 (1965)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.57	$0.48	-$6.1	51% 787-755 (1542)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.63	$0.28	-$3.35	44% 5045-6487 (11532)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.88

Value

$59.22

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.61

PnL

-$0.33

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.61

PnL

-$0.33

Record

29%

232-564 (796)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.48

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$7.83

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.57

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$6.1

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.63

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$3.35

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.