Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or higher on November 14?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 11%

Total Value

$115.13

Combined PnL

-$33.39

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$114.94

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.19

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$33.45

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$114.89	$114.94	+$0.06	99% 1213-13 (1226)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.48	$0.05	-$8.43	55% 1089-876 (1965)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.64	$0.04	-$6.6	51% 787-755 (1542)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.03	-$5.42	34% 231-458 (689)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.64	$0.02	-$3.62	27% 673-1791 (2464)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.63	$0.02	-$3.61	44% 5045-6487 (11532)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.52	$0.02	-$3.5	36% 3731-6727 (10458)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	29% 3160-7828 (10988)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	37% 1518-2567 (4085)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$114.89

Value

$114.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.48

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.43

Record

55%

1089-876 (1965)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.64

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.6

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.62

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.63

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.61

Record

44%

5045-6487 (11532)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.52

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.5

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

29%

3160-7828 (10988)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

1518-2567 (4085)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.