Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 13?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$174.58
-$6.38
99.2¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $36.34 | $35.21 | -$1.13 | 48% 492-535 (1027) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.88 | $29.75 | -$0.13 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $28.92 | -$0.93 | 29% 892-2183 (3075) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $24.02 | $24.02 | +$0 | 42% 838-1166 (2004) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $20 | $19.77 | -$0.23 | 53% 925-815 (1740) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.28 | -$0.62 | 53% 6080-5449 (11529) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $10.21 | $10.19 | -$0.02 | 48% 510-557 (1067) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.14 | $5.12 | -$0.02 | 58% 481-347 (828) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.45 | $2.16 | -$3.29 | 59% 1163-798 (1961) |
Invested
$36.34
Value
$35.21
PnL
-$1.13
Record
48%
492-535 (1027)
Invested
$29.88
Value
$29.75
PnL
-$0.13
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
Invested
$29.85
Value
$28.92
PnL
-$0.93
Record
29%
892-2183 (3075)
Invested
$24.02
Value
$24.02
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
838-1166 (2004)
Invested
$20
Value
$19.77
PnL
-$0.23
Record
53%
925-815 (1740)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.28
PnL
-$0.62
Record
53%
6080-5449 (11529)
Invested
$10.21
Value
$10.19
PnL
-$0.02
Record
48%
510-557 (1067)
Invested
$5.14
Value
$5.12
PnL
-$0.02
Record
58%
481-347 (828)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$2.16
PnL
-$3.29
Record
59%
1163-798 (1961)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $35.21
god83743894
No — $29.75
mildwindow27
No — $28.92
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $24.02
ghorrock
No — $19.77
cigarettes
No — $19.28
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $10.19
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $5.12
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98
CTRYes — $2.16