Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 13?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 97¢ · $167 held · ends Nov 13

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$167.2

Combined PnL

-$4.09

Smart Money Entry

95.7¢ → 96.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$164.17

Total Shares171

Combined PnL+$0.22

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.85

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$4.31

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96¢	$57.6	$58.2	+$0.6	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96¢	$35.06	$34.88	-$0.19	42% 838-1166 (2004)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 97¢	$29.1	$28.65	-$0.45	25% 92-281 (373)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$22.62	$22.96	+$0.34	47% 544-625 (1169)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92¢	$10.16	$9.48	-$0.03	53% 925-815 (1740)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$5.06	$5.01	-$0.05	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5	$5	+$0	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$2.7	-$2.75	59% 1163-798 (1961)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$48.01	$0.15	-$1.56	37% 3468-5985 (9453)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$57.6

Value

$58.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$35.06

Value

$34.88

PnL

-$0.19

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.1

Value

$28.65

PnL

-$0.45

Record

25%

92-281 (373)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$22.62

Value

$22.96

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$9.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$2.75

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.01

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.56

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.