Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 1 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on November 13?

1 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (9%) · Yes at 31¢ · $353 held · ends Nov 13

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 9%

Total Value

$353.12

Combined PnL

$23.27

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$120.02

Total Shares349

Combined PnL+$16.8

No10 traders

Total Value$233.05

Total Shares356

Combined PnL+$6.47

Yes — 9%No — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$157.77	$120.02	+$16.8	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 61.4¢	$73.65	$75.6	+$1.95	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 65.7¢	$39.4	$41.1	+$1.7	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$23	$25.2	+$2.2	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 68¢	$24.83	$24.47	-$0.37	62% 473-292 (765)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 67¢	$20.1	$20.55	+$0.45	27% 949-2550 (3499)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 68¢	$20.4	$20.1	-$0.3	17% 93-449 (542)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$9.95	$10.27	+$0.32	48% 492-535 (1027)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 60.5¢	$10.44	$8.7	+$0.26	53% 925-815 (1740)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.41	$3.53	+$0.13	47% 544-625 (1169)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.4	$3.53	+$0.13	42% 838-1166 (2004)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$157.77

Value

$120.02

PnL

+$16.8

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$73.65

Value

$75.6

PnL

+$1.95

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.4

Value

$41.1

PnL

+$1.7

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$23

Value

$25.2

PnL

+$2.2

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$24.83

Value

$24.47

PnL

-$0.37

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$20.1

Value

$20.55

PnL

+$0.45

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$20.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

17%

93-449 (542)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.44

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 11 top traders (9%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.