Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on November 13?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 52¢ · $478 held · ends Nov 13

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$477.82

Combined PnL

$129.27

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 52¢

+45% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$377.89

Total Shares741

Combined PnL+$131

No8 traders

Total Value$99.93

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$1.73

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 35.4¢	$307.87	$326.49	+$118.16	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 37.7¢	$36.48	$49.32	+$12.84	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 50.3¢	$30.2	$29.4	-$0.8	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$18.26	$18.08	-$0.18	48% 510-557 (1067)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 59.6¢	$21.37	$15.38	-$1.99	53% 925-815 (1740)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$15	$14.85	-$0.15	26% 871-2505 (3376)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$15	$14.7	-$0.3	17% 93-449 (542)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$2.9	$2.65	-$0.25	47% 524-596 (1120)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$2.58	$2.52	-$0.05	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$4.9	$2.35	+$2	45% 521-645 (1166)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$2.08	$2.08	-$0	76% 675-216 (891)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$307.87

Value

$326.49

PnL

+$118.16

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.48

Value

$49.32

PnL

+$12.84

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$30.2

Value

$29.4

PnL

-$0.8

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$18.26

Value

$18.08

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$21.37

Value

$15.38

PnL

-$1.99

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$0.15

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$14.7

PnL

-$0.3

Record

17%

93-449 (542)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$0.05

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$2.35

PnL

+$2

Record

45%

521-645 (1166)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$0

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.