Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on November 13?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 9.5¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$93.6
-$2.64
Research grade
AvoidYes at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $48.21 | $47.49 | -$0.71 | 53% 806-703 (1509) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $40.29 | $34.39 | -$5.9 | 28% 16-41 (57) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.45 | $6.68 | +$1.22 | 60% 1155-768 (1923) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1 | $2.78 | +$1.78 | 35% 386-715 (1101) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $1.14 | $2.11 | +$0.97 | 65% 2122-1162 (3284) |
Invested
$48.21
Value
$47.49
PnL
-$0.71
Record
53%
806-703 (1509)
Invested
$40.29
Value
$34.39
PnL
-$5.9
Record
28%
16-41 (57)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$6.68
PnL
+$1.22
Record
60%
1155-768 (1923)
Invested
$1
Value
$2.78
PnL
+$1.78
Record
35%
386-715 (1101)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$2.11
PnL
+$0.97
Record
65%
2122-1162 (3284)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.