Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on November 13?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $175 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$174.82
-$5.5
99.5¢ → 99¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $39.78 | $39.54 | -$0.24 | 53% 6080-5449 (11529) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $36.34 | $36.34 | +$0 | 47% 524-596 (1120) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $29.85 | -$0 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.82 | $29.66 | -$0.16 | 29% 892-2183 (3075) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $24.06 | $24.05 | -$0.01 | 62% 473-292 (765) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $9.73 | $9.68 | -$0.05 | 62% 471-291 (762) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5.12 | $5.09 | -$0.03 | 47% 544-625 (1169) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.45 | $0.45 | -$5 | 59% 1163-798 (1961) |
Invested
$39.78
Value
$39.54
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
6080-5449 (11529)
Invested
$36.34
Value
$36.34
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
524-596 (1120)
Invested
$29.85
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$29.66
PnL
-$0.16
Record
29%
892-2183 (3075)
Invested
$24.06
Value
$24.05
PnL
-$0.01
Record
62%
473-292 (765)
Invested
$9.73
Value
$9.68
PnL
-$0.05
Record
62%
471-291 (762)
Invested
$5.12
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
544-625 (1169)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$5
Record
59%
1163-798 (1961)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
cigarettes
No — $39.54
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $36.34
god83743894
No — $29.85
mildwindow27
No — $29.66
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $24.05
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $9.68
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $5.09
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98
CTRYes — $0.45