Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 13?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $48 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$48.41

Combined PnL

-$55.41

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$47.05

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$0.02

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.37

Total Shares475

Combined PnL-$55.39

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.96	-$0.01	28% 120-305 (425)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.13	$10.12	-$0.01	46% 579-670 (1249)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.06	$5.06	-$0	48% 613-668 (1281)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.91	$1.91	-$0	60% 534-358 (892)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.84	$0.49	-$14.35	61% 2173-1396 (3569)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.73	$0.49	-$14.24	46% 592-707 (1299)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.18	-$5.27	59% 1169-826 (1995)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.18	$0.09	-$8.03	28% 979-2569 (3548)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$29.34	$0.06	-$11.74	36% 3528-6156 (9684)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.81	$0.06	-$1.75	46% 4881-5723 (10604)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.01

Record

28%

120-305 (425)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

579-670 (1249)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

613-668 (1281)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

534-358 (892)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.84

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$14.35

Record

61%

2173-1396 (3569)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.73

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$14.24

Record

46%

592-707 (1299)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$5.27

Record

59%

1169-826 (1995)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.18

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$8.03

Record

28%

979-2569 (3548)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.34

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$11.74

Record

36%

3528-6156 (9684)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.81

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$1.75

Record

46%

4881-5723 (10604)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.