Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 13?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$157.73
-$5.05
99.8¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $33.05 | $32.97 | -$0.08 | 58% 481-347 (828) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.91 | -$0.06 | 26% 871-2505 (3376) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.85 | -$0.06 | 26% 118-337 (455) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $24.21 | $24.16 | -$0.05 | 62% 471-291 (762) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.9 | +$0 | 53% 6080-5449 (11529) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $9.78 | $9.76 | -$0.02 | 42% 838-1166 (2004) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.18 | $5.17 | -$0.01 | 47% 524-596 (1120) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.15 | $5.14 | -$0.01 | 47% 544-625 (1169) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $5.45 | $0.69 | -$4.76 | 59% 1163-798 (1961) |
Invested
$33.05
Value
$32.97
PnL
-$0.08
Record
58%
481-347 (828)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0.06
Record
26%
871-2505 (3376)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.85
PnL
-$0.06
Record
26%
118-337 (455)
Invested
$24.21
Value
$24.16
PnL
-$0.05
Record
62%
471-291 (762)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6080-5449 (11529)
Invested
$9.78
Value
$9.76
PnL
-$0.02
Record
42%
838-1166 (2004)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
524-596 (1120)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.14
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
544-625 (1169)
Invested
$5.45
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$4.76
Record
59%
1163-798 (1961)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $32.97
graynotebook19
No — $29.91
godblessme2026
No — $29.85
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $24.16
cigarettes
No — $19.9
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $9.76
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $5.17
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $5.14
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98
CTRYes — $0.69