Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on November 12?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$1.41
-$101.36
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $56.24 | $0.92 | -$8.95 | 48% 508-561 (1069) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $82.28 | $0.45 | -$81.83 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $50.68 | $0.02 | -$7.87 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.72 | $0.01 | -$2.71 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
Invested
$56.24
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$8.95
Record
48%
508-561 (1069)
Invested
$82.28
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$81.83
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$50.68
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$7.87
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.72
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.71
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.