Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$126.25
-$0.17
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $47.02 | $46.95 | -$0.07 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $46.03 | $45.96 | -$0.07 | 25% 81-244 (325) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $18.36 | $18.33 | -$0.03 | 49% 412-428 (840) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.01 | $5.01 | -$0.01 | 45% 446-539 (985) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $4.99 | $5 | +$0 | 26% 863-2483 (3346) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 44% 427-535 (962) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$47.02
Value
$46.95
PnL
-$0.07
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$46.03
Value
$45.96
PnL
-$0.07
Record
25%
81-244 (325)
Invested
$18.36
Value
$18.33
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
412-428 (840)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
45%
446-539 (985)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
863-2483 (3346)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
427-535 (962)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.