Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $315 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$315.04
-$0.1
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $199.78 | $199.8 | +$0.02 | 99% 340-2 (342) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $47.02 | $46.95 | -$0.07 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.93 | -$0.04 | 26% 863-2483 (3346) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $17.3 | $17.3 | +$0 | 49% 412-428 (840) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $16.06 | $16.06 | +$0 | 17% 78-376 (454) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 28% 108-284 (392) |
Invested
$199.78
Value
$199.8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
99%
340-2 (342)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$47.02
Value
$46.95
PnL
-$0.07
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.93
PnL
-$0.04
Record
26%
863-2483 (3346)
Invested
$17.3
Value
$17.3
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
412-428 (840)
Invested
$16.06
Value
$16.06
PnL
+$0
Record
17%
78-376 (454)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
108-284 (392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.