Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on November 12?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $169 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$169.35

Combined PnL

$0.56

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$169.35

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$0.56

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$46.92	$46.86	-$0.06	38% 3321-5397 (8718)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.88	$29.87	-$0.01	17% 68-331 (399)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$23.12	$23.39	+$0.28	44% 427-535 (962)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.94	+$0.06	53% 5757-5140 (10897)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$18.31	$18.3	-$0.01	47% 436-490 (926)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$15.81	$16.03	+$0.23	28% 108-284 (392)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$9.91	$9.97	+$0.07	50% 395-390 (785)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.97	$4.99	+$0.02	27% 939-2515 (3454)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$46.92

Value

$46.86

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

3321-5397 (8718)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.88

Value

$29.87

PnL

-$0.01

Record

17%

68-331 (399)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$23.12

Value

$23.39

PnL

+$0.28

Record

44%

427-535 (962)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.94

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

5757-5140 (10897)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$18.31

Value

$18.3

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

436-490 (926)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$15.81

Value

$16.03

PnL

+$0.23

Record

28%

108-284 (392)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

395-390 (785)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

27%

939-2515 (3454)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 45%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.