Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on November 12?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $470 held · ends Nov 12

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$470.39

Combined PnL

$1.3

Smart Money Entry

84.3¢ → 91.2¢

+8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$138.74

Total Shares163

Combined PnL+$1.3

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67ARB<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$248.22	$256.38	+$8.16	68% 2064-954 (3018)
└ No leg	Noavg 83.9¢	$167.31	$166.99	-$0.32
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.7¢	$80.91	$89.39	+$8.48
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$73.85	$75.26	+$1.41	32% 290-625 (915)
└ No leg	Noavg 84.7¢	$50.84	$52.98	+$2.14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.1¢	$23.01	$22.28	-$0.73
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 84¢	$70.9	$74.53	+$3.63	66% 4111-2135 (6246)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 83.6¢	$23.69	$22.69	-$1	80% 562-144 (706)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$14.51	$14.45	-$0.06	45% 378-468 (846)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$13.46	$13.42	-$0.04	29% 882-2138 (3020)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$4.19	$4.17	-$0.02	41% 689-993 (1682)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.28	$4.09	-$0.2	47% 356-402 (758)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.01	-$0.74	17% 76-374 (450)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$1.66	$1.39	-$0.27	54% 563-474 (1037)

hello.67ARB<$100

Invested

$248.22

Value

$256.38

PnL

+$8.16

Record

68%

2064-954 (3018)

Both legs:

No$167.3183.9¢-$0.32

Yes$80.9114.7¢+$8.48

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$73.85

Value

$75.26

PnL

+$1.41

Record

32%

290-625 (915)

Both legs:

No$50.8484.7¢+$2.14

Yes$23.0112.1¢-$0.73

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$70.9

Value

$74.53

PnL

+$3.63

Record

66%

4111-2135 (6246)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$23.69

Value

$22.69

PnL

-$1

Record

80%

562-144 (706)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$14.51

Value

$14.45

PnL

-$0.06

Record

45%

378-468 (846)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$13.46

Value

$13.42

PnL

-$0.04

Record

29%

882-2138 (3020)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.17

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

689-993 (1682)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$4.09

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.74

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.39

PnL

-$0.27

Record

54%

563-474 (1037)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.6%

91.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.