Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on November 12?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 64¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 12

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$169.53

Combined PnL

$33.11

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$150.78

Total Shares344

Combined PnL+$34.55

No4 traders

Total Value$18.75

Total Shares31

Combined PnL-$1.44

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 33.4¢	$89.72	$115.6	+$25.88	68% 2064-954 (3018)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.7¢	$18.98	$27.52	+$8.54	32% 290-625 (915)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 63¢	$10.13	$10.13	+$0	27% 936-2514 (3450)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.9¢	$7.53	$7.67	+$0.13	80% 562-144 (706)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.15	-$0.1	43% 387-516 (903)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$2.8	-$1.2	17% 66-330 (396)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 59¢	$2.81	$2.67	-$0.14	59% 1019-705 (1724)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$89.72

Value

$115.6

PnL

+$25.88

Record

68%

2064-954 (3018)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.98

Value

$27.52

PnL

+$8.54

Record

32%

290-625 (915)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$10.13

Value

$10.13

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.53

Value

$7.67

PnL

+$0.13

Record

80%

562-144 (706)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$0.1

Record

43%

387-516 (903)

god83743894<$100

Invested

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$1.2

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.14

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.