Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on November 12?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 59¢ · $319 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$318.93
-$0.01
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Noavg 55.4¢ | $198.53 | $210.39 | +$11.86 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.4¢ | $163.53 | $164.39 | +$0.86 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35¢ | $35 | $46 | +$11 | |
HE hello.67ARB<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $72.87 | $81.3 | +$8.43 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37¢ | $38.85 | $48.3 | +$9.45 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55.7¢ | $34.02 | $33 | -$1.02 | |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $22.14 | $22.14 | +$0 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.78 | -$0.17 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $2.17 | $2.32 | +$0.15 | 25% 839-2481 (3320) |
Invested
$198.53
Value
$210.39
PnL
+$11.86
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.87
Value
$81.3
PnL
+$8.43
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Both legs:
Invested
$22.14
Value
$22.14
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.78
PnL
-$0.17
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.15
Record
25%
839-2481 (3320)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.