Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 28¢ · $168 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$167.95
$23.39
24.5¢ → 27.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $49.55 | $69.45 | +$19.9 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.5¢ | $45.2 | $47.31 | +$2.11 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.9¢ | $38.99 | $40.27 | +$1.29 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $7.01 | $7.01 | +$0 | 54% 383-322 (705) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $3.9 | +$0.1 | 25% 839-2481 (3320) |
Invested
$49.55
Value
$69.45
PnL
+$19.9
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$45.2
Value
$47.31
PnL
+$2.11
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$38.99
Value
$40.27
PnL
+$1.29
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$7.01
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
383-322 (705)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.9
PnL
+$0.1
Record
25%
839-2481 (3320)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.