Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on November 12?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$192.99
$3
97.6¢ → 98.8¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $51.16 | $53.7 | +$2.54 | 34% 335-664 (999) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $46.77 | $46.48 | -$0.28 | 38% 3321-5397 (8718) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $29.63 | -$0.07 | 28% 108-284 (392) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.78 | $19.89 | +$0.11 | 53% 5757-5140 (10897) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $18.21 | $18.15 | -$0.06 | 45% 446-539 (985) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $15.92 | $15.99 | +$0.07 | 17% 68-331 (399) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $7.38 | $8.08 | +$0.71 | 55% 641-522 (1163) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $1.07 | $1.07 | -$0 | 42% 743-1014 (1757) |
Invested
$51.16
Value
$53.7
PnL
+$2.54
Record
34%
335-664 (999)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$46.77
Value
$46.48
PnL
-$0.28
Record
38%
3321-5397 (8718)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$29.63
PnL
-$0.07
Record
28%
108-284 (392)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.89
PnL
+$0.11
Record
53%
5757-5140 (10897)
Invested
$18.21
Value
$18.15
PnL
-$0.06
Record
45%
446-539 (985)
Invested
$15.92
Value
$15.99
PnL
+$0.07
Record
17%
68-331 (399)
Invested
$7.38
Value
$8.08
PnL
+$0.71
Record
55%
641-522 (1163)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$0
Record
42%
743-1014 (1757)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
241532532432
No — $53.7
Lucerys
No — $46.48
godblessme2026
No — $29.63
cigarettes
No — $19.89
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $18.15
god83743894
No — $15.99
ghorrock
No — $8.08
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $1.07