Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C or below on November 11?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $135 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$134.87
-$3.14
99.6¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.5 | -$0.4 | 99% 196-1 (197) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $20.37 | $20.64 | +$0.27 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5.07 | $5.05 | -$0.02 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5.03 | $5.01 | -$0.02 | 39% 303-465 (768) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $2.96 | $2.94 | -$0.01 | 44% 286-362 (648) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $3.51 | $1.07 | -$2.44 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $1.17 | $0.65 | -$0.52 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.5
PnL
-$0.4
Record
99%
196-1 (197)
Invested
$20.37
Value
$20.64
PnL
+$0.27
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.02
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$5.01
PnL
-$0.02
Record
39%
303-465 (768)
Invested
$2.96
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$0.01
Record
44%
286-362 (648)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$1.07
PnL
-$2.44
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.52
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.