Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $90 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$90.48
$0.05
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $63.35 | $63.4 | +$0.05 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.98 | $12.98 | -$0 | 46% 317-371 (688) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $6.03 | $6.03 | +$0 | 48% 307-339 (646) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.09 | $5.09 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.97 | $2.97 | +$0 | 41% 342-497 (839) |
Invested
$63.35
Value
$63.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$12.98
Value
$12.98
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
317-371 (688)
Invested
$6.03
Value
$6.03
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
307-339 (646)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$2.97
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
342-497 (839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.